Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Jorde,
The world is slowing down, but is not relaxed.
If we just look at history, we would know that the only way for governments to unload debt is inflation. For decades wages have stagnated, and globalization caused what Alan Greenspan calls “disinflation” where cheap imports from places like China mad it appear that gains in purchasing power was good or progress. Pretty much this was what made businesses like Walmart big.
All the debt that governments made to avoid sudden collapses will take a lot of time to normalize. Understand that the money has to come from somewhere, and this debt will be paid by you and me.
Anyways the cost also includes prolonged slow growth. Pure regression to the mean. The next decade is already history…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I’m really loving these Rene Herse gravel tires for in 26 inch mountain bike size. The weigh little, are kinda wide, and they roll fast. The Ti Basso Newsboy and the Ti IBIS are both more comfortable, accelerate faster, have less rolling resistance and are also faster. What is not to like except the cost. These are not el Cheapo tires. Oh-well. Money well spent in my book.
So they have a 2.3 wide gravel tire in 26 inch and pretty much I can have the fat-boy Cush and look, but I kinda love the feel and ride of the Natches Pass 1.8 that measure 1.5 wide on the Newsboy.
The Natches Pass tire as the front wheel on the Ti IBIS makes it a better bike also. Know that the bike looks plain evil.
I borrowed the ENO cranks off the Newsboy to see if I have the clearance I need for running an 11-speed XTR front derailleur, pretty much a try before buy move, and pretty much buying another square taper JIS crank from White Industries makes sense, but this crank will have VBC chainrings. So I’m moving forward.
Cal
So they have a 2.3 wide gravel tire in 26 inch and pretty much I can have the fat-boy Cush and look, but I kinda love the feel and ride of the Natches Pass 1.8 that measure 1.5 wide on the Newsboy.
The Natches Pass tire as the front wheel on the Ti IBIS makes it a better bike also. Know that the bike looks plain evil.
I borrowed the ENO cranks off the Newsboy to see if I have the clearance I need for running an 11-speed XTR front derailleur, pretty much a try before buy move, and pretty much buying another square taper JIS crank from White Industries makes sense, but this crank will have VBC chainrings. So I’m moving forward.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The report is that the U.S. is in better shape than the rest of the world economically.
Europe is a mess because of the war in the Ukraine. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has its manufacturing stymied due to the costs of energy. Look out below…
In China the housing market is cracking, but interesting is that both China and Japan are suffering deflation and not inflation. Remember that deflation means or translates to excess capacity.
Then remember that commodities are priced in dollars, and that the dollar is increasing in value and purchasing power due to expected and anticipated higher and higher interest rates.
Fighter planes are specifically designed to violently maneuver and not just speed. Pretty much the FED has to stall the economy, but not crash the plane. I will remind everyone with the purpose to scare and terrify that Jerome Powell is not an economist really and professionally he is trained as a lawyer. How scary is that?
So imagine some one piloting a plane who pretty much has to do a Scully and land a passenger plane in the Hudson due to multiple engine failure due to bird strikes being sucked into jet engines. Pretty much a miracle has to happen because you do not have an experienced pilot in the cockpit. Are we in trouble?
Know that some reports suggest we are kinda gliding along in our approach for a landing and the descent towards the ground has established a glide path of sorts: 3/4 point interest rate hikes; although some analysts believed or thought a full one point rate hike would be more appropriate…
So we are still gliding along looking for a place to land, but we are starting to loose altitude… Know that the ground is coming closer, but perhaps we should not panic yet, and brace yourself for a possible and probable crash landing. The oxygen masks still have not been deployed, and since this is a passenger plane there is no ejection seat where one can “Punch-out.”
So back to the math, 30 year mortgages are now at 6%, but some expect that interest rates on a 30 year mortgage have to hit 10% to pretty much take down the housing market. Use this as a possible predictor of our glide path. We still have mucho altitude…
Now officially the DOW has dropped into a bear market. These are large cap stocks who normally do better in downturns and are generally the first to lift and go up in a recovery, but pretty much the DOW dropping into bear territory is like a flame out on the last remaining engine.
A 747 has 4 engines, but can still remain airborne and fly on only just one engine. There is an old joke where one engine fails, then another, and then the third, so basically this particular scenario is happening and the plane is flying on just one engine. Of course the pilot announces the slower airspeed with each engine failure will effect and delay the ETA, and know the plane has to cross an ocean, so no emergency landing can take place. One delayed ETA leads to another and then the third…
So some woman mentions, “I hope the fourth engine does not fail, because otherwise we will be up here all day.”
So here we are, but it is no joke.
Anyways, without saying the FED has to kill not only the housing market, but also the stock market to further kill the “wealth effect.”
”Look out below,” I say.
Don’t panic yet, still plenty of time for that, but I think already a crash is eminent. Hope you listened to the flight crew when they went through the emergency procedures.
Cal
Europe is a mess because of the war in the Ukraine. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has its manufacturing stymied due to the costs of energy. Look out below…
In China the housing market is cracking, but interesting is that both China and Japan are suffering deflation and not inflation. Remember that deflation means or translates to excess capacity.
Then remember that commodities are priced in dollars, and that the dollar is increasing in value and purchasing power due to expected and anticipated higher and higher interest rates.
Fighter planes are specifically designed to violently maneuver and not just speed. Pretty much the FED has to stall the economy, but not crash the plane. I will remind everyone with the purpose to scare and terrify that Jerome Powell is not an economist really and professionally he is trained as a lawyer. How scary is that?
So imagine some one piloting a plane who pretty much has to do a Scully and land a passenger plane in the Hudson due to multiple engine failure due to bird strikes being sucked into jet engines. Pretty much a miracle has to happen because you do not have an experienced pilot in the cockpit. Are we in trouble?
Know that some reports suggest we are kinda gliding along in our approach for a landing and the descent towards the ground has established a glide path of sorts: 3/4 point interest rate hikes; although some analysts believed or thought a full one point rate hike would be more appropriate…
So we are still gliding along looking for a place to land, but we are starting to loose altitude… Know that the ground is coming closer, but perhaps we should not panic yet, and brace yourself for a possible and probable crash landing. The oxygen masks still have not been deployed, and since this is a passenger plane there is no ejection seat where one can “Punch-out.”
So back to the math, 30 year mortgages are now at 6%, but some expect that interest rates on a 30 year mortgage have to hit 10% to pretty much take down the housing market. Use this as a possible predictor of our glide path. We still have mucho altitude…
Now officially the DOW has dropped into a bear market. These are large cap stocks who normally do better in downturns and are generally the first to lift and go up in a recovery, but pretty much the DOW dropping into bear territory is like a flame out on the last remaining engine.
A 747 has 4 engines, but can still remain airborne and fly on only just one engine. There is an old joke where one engine fails, then another, and then the third, so basically this particular scenario is happening and the plane is flying on just one engine. Of course the pilot announces the slower airspeed with each engine failure will effect and delay the ETA, and know the plane has to cross an ocean, so no emergency landing can take place. One delayed ETA leads to another and then the third…
So some woman mentions, “I hope the fourth engine does not fail, because otherwise we will be up here all day.”
So here we are, but it is no joke.
Anyways, without saying the FED has to kill not only the housing market, but also the stock market to further kill the “wealth effect.”
”Look out below,” I say.
Don’t panic yet, still plenty of time for that, but I think already a crash is eminent. Hope you listened to the flight crew when they went through the emergency procedures.
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
And so it goes. The economy gets rough and most of us who don't play around in/with it, will just tighten our belts and eat more beans and rice. On the ground it really affects those with a lot to lose. I'm not sad for them. It's sad for those with little means for whom life will become harder. The top 10% can afford to be knocked around a bit, maybe take a few less holidays per-year, maybe drive their new car a little less, maybe hold off on the new addition to the house, maybe hold off on making carbon copies of themselves.
I, along with many, won't shed a single tear for those who won't be making a staggering profit during the coming rough times. For most people, it's just life as usual.
Phil Forrest
I, along with many, won't shed a single tear for those who won't be making a staggering profit during the coming rough times. For most people, it's just life as usual.
Phil Forrest
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
The thing I see is that a downturn might take a decade or more of slow growth to tame inflation. Also governments get rid of debt loads through the use of inflation for their benefit. Know that governments all over the world have record deficits to unwind, the easiest way to pay down debt for governments is in an inflationary environment.
So the question to ask is how long will it take for the U.S. to unwind its debt load that is at record levels? My guess is a rather long time.
We are living in a historic time.
“The money has to come from somewhere,” I say. Who do you think will be paying all this debt? Everyone suffers, but who do you think will suffer the most?
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I just did a test and mounted a 46/26T pair of chainrings on a Middleburn spyder to check for clearance, and it fit. So the XTR 9-speed could be used on the Ti IBIS, and the cool thing about that is that 9-Speed on a 1994 pre V-brake bike might be period correct or very close to correct.
One advantage of the 2x9-speed XTR over a 2x11 XTR is the cassette is smaller, more compact, and lighter in weight so there is a performance advantage.
For gearing I’ll have a 18.35 inch bailout gear, and my granny will be a 20.8, but know I could still use a 24 tooth small chainring and still be wishing the Max Cap of the long cage derailleur I have. I’ll be using 11-34T XT cassettes. High gear is limited to a 100.36 high, but that is enough.
I also have a 42/32T 11-40T 2x11 option also… This I already know will work with a mid cage XTR derailleur. The chainring shifting on this setup is really fast and deadly, but the gearing is rather compressed and limited in range…
In the end the 9-speed looks to be the better choice. So this is also true for the Newsboy where I would go 9-speed 46/24T and max out the Max Cap of the rear derailleur. This is viable because the wider gearing supports the notion of this bike being an all-road cruiser, where wide gearing range would best be served.
The Ti IBIS with a 2x11 though would have a more compressed gearing range, but that might make it a better mountain bike.
Still a coin toss, but I have options…
Had a family day. We went to the Hudson Valley Irish Festival that was held at the Peekskill waterfront after watching the “Creature-Junior” (grand daughter) play a game of soccer. It was a very nice fall day.
Cal
One advantage of the 2x9-speed XTR over a 2x11 XTR is the cassette is smaller, more compact, and lighter in weight so there is a performance advantage.
For gearing I’ll have a 18.35 inch bailout gear, and my granny will be a 20.8, but know I could still use a 24 tooth small chainring and still be wishing the Max Cap of the long cage derailleur I have. I’ll be using 11-34T XT cassettes. High gear is limited to a 100.36 high, but that is enough.
I also have a 42/32T 11-40T 2x11 option also… This I already know will work with a mid cage XTR derailleur. The chainring shifting on this setup is really fast and deadly, but the gearing is rather compressed and limited in range…
In the end the 9-speed looks to be the better choice. So this is also true for the Newsboy where I would go 9-speed 46/24T and max out the Max Cap of the rear derailleur. This is viable because the wider gearing supports the notion of this bike being an all-road cruiser, where wide gearing range would best be served.
The Ti IBIS with a 2x11 though would have a more compressed gearing range, but that might make it a better mountain bike.
Still a coin toss, but I have options…
Had a family day. We went to the Hudson Valley Irish Festival that was held at the Peekskill waterfront after watching the “Creature-Junior” (grand daughter) play a game of soccer. It was a very nice fall day.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
“Maggie” and I have been doing a lot of daydreaming lately about our house. Today I pitched increasing the size of the garage by a third, and she is on board. Pretty much a 10x20 or 12x20 in the back-backyard. We still will have a pretty big rear lawn, and the idea is to have enough workspace. So one idea is to just have a free standing building that pretty much could be called a rather large shed, but if we add electric and heat well then it could be taxed as a permanent structure.
As they say, “No one ever got rich by paying taxes…” Anyways a two car garage will have the footprint of a 3-car garage.
Anyways, we want to keep/maintain the hip roof on the garage, and because our two car garage is taller than a standard garage, we can likely tuck a separate roofline under the eves of the hip roof and pitch the roof lower heading towards the back with the very pretty view.
We also figured out how to make our kitchen into an eat-in kitchen with a really nice antique vintage arts and crafts small round table that comes with 4 chairs.
Presently we have a vintage arts and crafts sideboard that we use as a coffee bar that also holds a Breville toaster oven where the table and chairs will go, but the sideboard will get recycled into the dining room.
Lately a lot of “virtual work” meaning just talking about work, but not doing anything is happening. Probably the first time in my life that I find virtual work, meaning just talking, is productive. We ordered the arts and crafts table from California today. Will be 4-6 weeks to get this antique delivered.
Had to hit Trader Joe’s to stock up on things we like. The prices are good.
Last night we used a 25% off coupon that we could apply to non sale items at CVS. Also had a $4.00 rewards coupon that was going to expire. Pretty much we bought over $75.00 worth of goods and only paid $53.00. This is how we fight inflation. Also I kinda stockpile and hoard stuff that pretty much are supplies. Eventually they will get used.
Cal
As they say, “No one ever got rich by paying taxes…” Anyways a two car garage will have the footprint of a 3-car garage.
Anyways, we want to keep/maintain the hip roof on the garage, and because our two car garage is taller than a standard garage, we can likely tuck a separate roofline under the eves of the hip roof and pitch the roof lower heading towards the back with the very pretty view.
We also figured out how to make our kitchen into an eat-in kitchen with a really nice antique vintage arts and crafts small round table that comes with 4 chairs.
Presently we have a vintage arts and crafts sideboard that we use as a coffee bar that also holds a Breville toaster oven where the table and chairs will go, but the sideboard will get recycled into the dining room.
Lately a lot of “virtual work” meaning just talking about work, but not doing anything is happening. Probably the first time in my life that I find virtual work, meaning just talking, is productive. We ordered the arts and crafts table from California today. Will be 4-6 weeks to get this antique delivered.
Had to hit Trader Joe’s to stock up on things we like. The prices are good.
Last night we used a 25% off coupon that we could apply to non sale items at CVS. Also had a $4.00 rewards coupon that was going to expire. Pretty much we bought over $75.00 worth of goods and only paid $53.00. This is how we fight inflation. Also I kinda stockpile and hoard stuff that pretty much are supplies. Eventually they will get used.
Cal
Yeah, ok bikes, houses, the economy, etc. Where is the camera talk? I know you are dreaming of something Cal, you always are. I would like a Voigtlander 50mm Nokton 1.5 II MC myself. There is no Voigtlander dealer in Chile. Import fees add 50%. Phil put things in perspective.
fiddle
Established
Cal is eyeing a Chamonix 4x5, I saw him stare at mine... 
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Cal is eyeing a Chamonix 4x5, I saw him stare at mine...
Fidel,
I am a camera slut, and I need a 4x5 like yours.
Cal
Saganich
Established
Nice guitar. The old growth Adirondack spruce top is really nice tone. I have a '42 Gibson banner LG2 with the same old spruce and mahogany bk and sides and man its an excellent earthy sound compared to the Sitka spruce on my Martin and Makenzie&Mar, which is brighter almost electric sounding.
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Regarding photography, I don't really have the money, the space, and certainly don't have the time to do the photography I want to do. I'm also out of film, aside from a can of Agfa motion picture film of unknown provenance. So I use my cell phone and take photos of my cats or photos of things at the cemetery where we are volunteer gardeners. That's why I post things about cycling; because it is an interest I have that I use regularly and can get me to a job.
Phil Forrest
Phil Forrest
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
I’m kinda in a photography limbo myself. For me it is a pastime that has to wait a bit, but it will not get abandoned. Right now the house has the priority, but eventually I’ll have a darkroom, and my digital studio up and running again.
I do have some film to use, and also the NYC street shooting was to have a sense of home because leaving NYC was an eventuality. So now that part of my life is over, and a new beginning will start. I’m letting all this sort itself out.
I can see how photography and biking can crossover though. I already have a seat post rack for a tripod, and pretty much the 4x5 camera Fidel brought to the last meet-up would be a good camera for bike and shooting.
In the meantime I have biking and guitar…
BTW the new guitar is starting to flex a bit and the bass response is building. Still not boomy, and still a very bright guitar that is mucho articulate, but perhaps still a bit dry and not so rich in overtones yet. The progress so far is very impressive and rewarding.
The thing is though is part of my identity is as a photographer, even though I’m not doing photography.
Cal
Very cool Fidel, I would love to see what you are doing with it.
Cal, 4x5" is very un-Cal like. This is for you!
https://www.chamonixviewcamera.com/cameras/410n3
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Chris,
I was unaware you too are a Guitard as the bass players call us.
A Gibson LG2 is a very nice size guitar. I am fond of a Nick Lucas sized guitar with the deeper body and enhanced bass response. Also I think the strong fundamental from a mahogany body is a pleasant voice. The sweetness of the small guitar is hard to beat.
I’m a flat picker mostly. Do you flat pick or do finger style?
The red spruce has a clarity in the top end that I think beats or rivals the best German Spruce. Mucho stiff with a crazy strength to weight ratio. My new guitar is a featherweight and is remarkably light, but boy is it loud. The bass I think will take a while to fully open up.
Perhaps rosewood bodies have more overtones, but for strong fundamental nothing beats mahogany, or hog for short. Basically my other Model “F” is the same guitar, but without the aged wood and is all mahogany including the top. Mucho warmth (mids) and less top end than my new Model “F.” A good way to describe the sound of the all-hog guitar is “throaty.”
Kinda funny how Simon and Garfunkel were once best friends that went to grade school together in Forest Hills, then became legends together that marked an era, but now are enemies.
In an interview Art Garfunkel called Paul Simon a douche bag. LOL.
My friend Tim the idiot savant on guitar was on a plane with Art Garfunkel, who acted like a maven of sorts on the plane. Then later Tim ran into him again at a venue they both played at. Pretty much not a happy guy, and Tim says that he had awful flakey skin, but at the gig that guy could sing…
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Cal, don't put much weight on a seatpost clamp-on rack, because the post and the frame is not designed for a load with a lot of leverage on it. I've seen folks with splayed out binder collars, frames crimped just below the collar-cut, and even one that had a bulge in the forward part of the seat tube where the lower end of the post pushed the tube out. The frame was built to a specification of known and predicted load points. Adding a lever to the seatpost creates an out-of-spec load, and extra stressors on the seat tube and seat stays. Don't make yourself an expensive paperweight. Remember, most of the stress is going to be the small vibrational force added as extra leverage to your post. If your rack is 2 feet long, and your load is 5lbs, you're putting a static load of 10ft lbs on it. Add the acceleration of bumps and that load grows enormously. This, added to your weight on the post effectively creates the same force as if you have an old BMX slacker post angled far back. The problem is that none of your bikes are thick straight-gauge chromoly tubing like BMX bikes which are built to be punished and jumped. If you can, add some struts from the axle or if you have braze-ons at the dropouts, up to the rear of the rack to allow it to carry a load and not for your seatpost collar to be taking all of that leverage.
Phil Forrest
Phil Forrest
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
John,
You know me well. LOL.
”Go big: or don’t go,” Mark Cuban says, but I say, “Go crazy: or don’t go.” LOL.
Anyways the world is full of mediocrity, and by definition if you want to stand out, don’t do what other people are doing.
I don’t want to be boring. Anyways Snarky Joe and Devil Christian had a good time making fun of how all the stuff I kinda do is never “normal” and a bit crazy and over the top.
They cited the single brake lever that controls both my front and rear brakes on my Ti IBIS. Pretty much an odd thing to do, mucho strange, that kinda defies physics and even logic. Snarky Joe laughed and said, “No one else does this…” Devil Christian laughed in agreement.
Then they agreed that none of my bikes are “Normal.”
So basically “Crazy” with a capitol “C” is my trademark. LOL.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
Thanks.
Good advice.
Now my thinking is to limit the seat post rack to just a tripod, and then I have to look into a front mount rack for a padded camera bag.
I know Paul’s Components sells brake post extenders for mounting racks. I’ll have to look into this further. The seat post rack says it is rated for 20 pounds, but you are correct a lever can amplify loads into causing structural damage.
Cal
POST SCRIPT: The steel IBIS is savagely overbuilt and is chrome moly tubing that was likely an early bike that used oversized tubing. It was built as a trials bike, so it was intended to do drops and be hopped around on. “It is no skinny puppy,” Scot Nicol once said to describe the Mountain Trials.