iml
Well-known
NickTrop said:
You need to look at more recent figures, a lot has changed in the last 2 or 3 years. Fujifilm colour film sales were down 17% year on year last year, as this PDF link shows:
http://www.fujifilmholdings.com/en/pdf/investors/finance/materials/ff_fy_2006q2_001.pdf
A 17% drop in one year is significant, I'm sure you agree.
Kodak, as we all know, has already begun to restructure as primarily a digital company:
http://digital-lifestyles.info/2006/01/31/kodaks-digital-revenue-snaps-past-film-sales/
I'm not arguing that film will disappear (I've repeatedly said the exact opposite), but, as the mainstream consumer format, film is on the way out. This seems to me an unexceptional point to make, just self-evident from the state of the industry. Film availability is neither here nor there, not relevant to the basic argument, which is, that for most people, in most parts of the world, in the next few years, photography will be a solely digital technology, and anyone shooting film will be in a very small niche.
Ian
NickTrop
Mentor
iml said:
It's already out as the mainstream consumer format, been that way since 2004. To which I say "who cares"? Bill O'Reilly is the #1 cable news talking head. You won't catch me tuning in to that moron blowhard. Football's the #1 sport, I prefer hockey. What percent of the population has more John Coltrane CDs than Britney Spears? Who cares about the mainstream? I don't. Wii is the #1 gaming system, but there's plenty of PS3s being sold. There's room in the market for both. Your thread is titled "film is dying, being killed" or some such.
Where I completely disagree is that "in the next few years, photography will be a solely digital technology, and anyone shooting film will be a very small niche". This is because:
1. Sales of Disposable Cameras
2. Huge film install base (my dad, in his 70's ain't about to "go digital")
3. Developing markets like China (digital cameras require a large up-front outlay compared to film cameras. Most also buy the computers, pirate the software, printers, inks, etc...)
4. People who simple won't "go digital" because they "sit in front of a computer all day, and are interested in the traditional means of photography as a hobby".
5. Student market
6. 35mm film sales are well into the hundreds of millions of rolls, round 1/2 a billion. Even if this erodes to 200 million at $5.00 a roll, figuring 50% margin, I'm sure some company would be willing to take that business. And talk about customer loyalty!
In a "few years" I don't see much change, personally. To me, a "very small niche" is people who shoot the still being made "Super 8". That's a "very small niche" not 35mm film. There are huge advantages in cost, quality, sound capability of home video/digital movie cameras which "nearly" killed that market. Digital "advantages"? For my money I don't really see any over a traditional film-based print. In fact I see as many disadvantages biggest being "they're no fun at all".
There's actually an overabundance of stocks available, and though I hate to see any of those go away (even the ones I don't use), I'm sure that will be the case. I expect it will be about the same as it is now, some more films and film players to disappear, but there will be generally the same availability. I don't think film will sustain 17% reduction in sales, year after year in a linear regression down to zero.
As far as black and white 120 print film, I run around shooting black and white 120 film with an old folder or a Kiev 60, develop my own (mostly), and print my own (mostly). There's enough of us, plus pros to keep the market going. I don't think "digital" erroded this niche (my niche) very much. (Hey! You mean I don't have to buy film, load it 12 exposures at a time into a Jobo tank to develop it, futz with all these chemicals, and spend hours in near darkness to get a print? I don have to do dat wit digital? Wow! 'mazin! Wait here while I run out and buy one!)
What I somewhat resent (not you) are these idiot consumers who seem "thrilled" at the idear that film will disappear. Huh? Not going to play armchair psychologist, but there's something going on in dere brainz wit dat.
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FrankS
Registered User
Beautiful. Thank you Nick!
Iskra 2
Kodachrome Rules!
NickTrop said:
schadenfreude \SHOD-n-froy-duh\, noun:
A malicious satisfaction obtained from the misfortunes of others.
After satisfying their "digital itch" many have "Buyer's Remorse" and need to "feel good".
Regards.
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T
tedwhite
Guest
"Schadenfreude." Actually knew the meaning, learned it somehow in grad school. The problem is how to slip it into the conversation stream at the appropriate moment tomorrow morning at the coffee shop in Bisbee, Arizona.