New York August 2022 Meet-Up

Also not shown in the photo/video is that my C10 does not have the “Panoramic” rear window option. I’m actually mucho happy that it has the smaller rear window that is more retro of the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s.

The current trend favors the larger window, and many small windowed trucks get updated to larger windows. As time goes on smaller windowed cabs are becoming rarer.

Anyways I love being countertrend. It annoys people. LOL.

Cal
 
The heat wave subsided, so I decided to go for a ride. My friend A.J. Mentioned how road riding really helped him be a better mountain bike racer. I kind of agree, so I have been putting on the miles on the road to build out a base of sorts, but my twist is that I do it on a 63.59 inch gear single speed. The additional challenge of course making it up hills without the advantage of gears.

The Ti IBIS is a fun bike that perhaps weighs 17 1/2 pounds. The short wheelbase makes for a responsive handling, and pretty much it is a climbing machine.

So for many riding hills on a single speed is kinda crazy. It involves a bit of pain, but know my friend Eric says, “Pain is like pleasure: its just a feeling.”

I started out on my ride near my house heading south on Washington Street with the intent to head to Croton Harmon. I decided to allow 12 cars to pass me on this country like road, and that random event would decide when I would make a right and head towards the Hudson River where it is less hilly. The rolling hills are challenging on a single speed. Some sections require additional strength that comes from standing where you stand on the peddles, rock the bike, and use upper body strength to use your entire body as a lever. The effect is more like stair climbing on a stair master. At a certain point it can be like rock climbing…

So my idea was to execute a bit of a strength workout and break off into a spin to get back home, but understand this is the Hudson Valley, I was heading south, but going home was north and that translates into basically climbing into a higher altitude as I proceed north.

So maybe 13 cars passed me on Washington Street because I was so relaxed that I might not have counted a passing car. The road pretty much has no shoulder, but there are few cars, and along the way are stately homes and wild raspberries everywhere. I make my first right onto Maple Street or Maple something believing I’m heading west towards the river. I ride quite a while, the river never comes into view and somehow I come upon a farm and a T like intersection so I make a right knowing I’m likely heading north.

So I’m a bit tired from the hills when I come to an old church Yorktown Baptist Church, and then realize I’m pretty far north, and in fact I am no longer in Westchester County and somehow I’m actually in Putnam County. I preset much stay on Baptist Church Road that is a series of long rolling hills with lots of curves. When that ends I find myself on Baldwin road which if I stay on this until I hit Route 6 basically I’ll be near the health food store we frequent, but at least I’ll have my bearings and won’t get be lost.

So anyways an unintended adventure, but I still don’t know if this will be an UBER ride: a ride where I have to get an UBER to take me home. I figure the way to the Hudson River should be downhill, but I remember on Route 6 there is this steep descent that is long, and that the ascent is equally long creating a valley that I would not have the strength or gearing to climb riding the bike.

I come upon a junction of Route 202 which is Crompond Road. So now I realize that pretty much I was on a north easterly tack, and that is how I ended up getting into a rather far away place. Pretty much one side is a marshy swamp for a good part of the way, and this road parallels Bear Mountain Parkway. Pretty much what separates Bear Mountain Parkway and Crompond Road is a ridge of hills, and the hilly ridge created a bog on the south side that follows Crompond Road.

So understand that Crompond Road has a speed limit of 45 MPH and I have a wide shoulder that bikes could ride three a breast, but because of the hills and my tired state I chug along struggling on the long ramp like inclines. I am tired and a bit hammered, but I also know home is not that far away, but it kinda is.

Once I get near Peekskill Crompond Road starts ramping downward. At one point I’m almost doing the speed of traffic, meaning perhaps 40 MPH on a 17 1/2 pound bike with one gear, as the cars pass me doing 45-50 MPH. I wonder how many drivers took notice that my bike had only one gear and remarked about my velocity.

So I kinda wore out any “Toe-In” on my brake pads, so when I use my brakes they squeal loudly to draw lots of attention. On the shoulder I have to watch out for the usual road hazards, pot holes, patches of gravel, and even road kill. I saw possibly a dead raccoon or possum that was “pancaked” and so disfigured that I could not tell what kind of animal it was.

Also because the IBIS is such a short wheelbase I have to move the CG back as far as possible for stability at high speeds, so basically I’m jutting my butt out in an exaggerated manner to lighten the front wheel and stabilize the bike.

So the ride was satisfying. Not so far away is the Croton water system that basically is the water supply for NYC. The land is undeveloped and protected for good reason.

Along the way I discovered som shots that are worthy of “drive by shootings.” One is the old graveyard of the old Baptist Church, and another are these steps in Peekskill that are closed off not far from downtown.

I think I will do this ride as a circuit again. It is a tough workout and is pretty. Double rewards. Also there was this trailhead in Yorktown I think I have to investigate that might be great for a gravel bike. I’m scouting out possible riding locations for “Mike the Skinny Hipster.”

So I will call this ride UBER Ride number Two. The first UBER ride was the one from East Harlem to Lake Rockland where my destination was Bear Mountain. I was riding fine, untill I realized I was tired. Pretty dumb that I forgot that I had to ride home. Anyways did not have a cell phone with me to call UBER anyway… Luckily I found a old railroad trail that bypassed the rolling hills of Rockland that would of killed me.

So now my life is full of adventure. So far I have not had to call UBER. LOL.

Cal
 
The Mohansic Trailway is about a mile long Trailway that use to be a railroad. It connects to other trails. Pretty much this area turned into a golf course.

So I looked at a map and see how I got disoriented. My due south ended up becoming an eastern excursion, and then things curved around and I was heading north for some time. I skirted the Croton water system where pretty much it remains an undeveloped area free from industry. The roads BTW were fresh pavement. Double-Bonus.

So a great side product of a two hour ride is that you burn about 1000 calories. Another effect is food and drink is a great reward because the body craves both. I did not need water on the ride. Pretty much I have the right body type for sweating. So I made a 74 fluid ounce smoothie; frozen banana (to capture perfect ripeness); fresh blueberries; cantaloupe; double skim milk that has twice the protein; 1 1/2 scoops of high ended vegetable protein; and a few ice cubes.

Then I have to say that the Braveil Toaster oven we have elevates making toast into an experience that involves perfection, topped with some crazy blood orange high-end mar-MIL-laid that was gifted to “Maggie.”

Boy am I spoiled and ruined. I’m thinking I might fix the Powder Room screen and call it a day.

Tonight’s dinner involves grilled shrimp on my bar-B-Q.

I sit in filtered sun under the pergola. I think I’ll go in for a Heineken “Zero” just to be bad. I think I will clean and detail the Ti IBIS. It is a great ride. Other owners of an IBIS MountainTrials say it is a difficult ride to master, and they also say it gets scary at high speed, but I love it. I guess because it was my first mountain bike I got use to the violent handling and the twitchy steering.

Phil has it right though: set up is crucial. I have Fat Bar modern carbon fiber handle bars that cost me $200.00. They are extra long/wide with a rise so I I sit more upright and further back. Then I have a short stem with a 15 degree rise to add to the upright and further back to encourage stability. The bike is not so twitchy and violent.

So if I could do this ride 5-6 times a week I would be mighty fit. Not too much, but not too little either. The hills require strength and stamina. Good amount of spinning too for cardio. Pretty much a whole body workout. I’m tired but not hammered. Got to check my blood pressure, but I bet it dropped about ten points on both readings. Anyways my resting pulse is generally a flat 50 and sometimes even 49 BPM.

They say this kind of exercise that is beyond the minimum lowers mortality rates 25%-35%. Already I feel like a different man.

Cal
 
My blood pressure dropped 10 points on both the SYS and the DIA from the ride today. Pulse is elevated to 60-61 from my usual 49-51 BPM.

Anyways I kinda know my body.

Instead of fixing a screen I went to my local lumber yard to pick up the door I ordered. A very nice wood door with a Prairie Style window from the Art Deco/Craftsman era. Should look spectacular.

Didn’t get to detail the Ti IBIS. Oh-well.

Tomorrow will mow the lawn. I’ll very likely do another ride. Let the training begin…

Cal
 
Had a modeling obligation to do today. Pretty much was asked by our agent in London to send them some “Digitals” which are 4 head to toe shots front, side, back and lastly the other side to kinda have a 360 view against a neutral background. The dressing involved just jeans and a plain white T-shirt.

Anyways I guess this is how models are shown dressed down as much as possible without being naked perhaps. I bet this is how models are shown without makeup and costume, and in a ways a different kinda way to have a “head-shot” but it involves the entire body.

The white T-shirt I used was a Hanes boys shirt that was brand new and never used in size 14-16. No lie that I have a body of a 15 year old and that I am a skinny bitch. Understand that it was a tight snug fitting shirt to show off that I’m a skinny but muscular bitch. The sleeves were a bit short and exposed mucho bicep.

Used our concrete lock block patio under the shade of the pergola as outdoor stage. The Leica CL was the camera of choice. EZ-PZ, but know that we purposely delayed responding to this request because all parties agreed that we will have a delayed start and be gearing up in the fall. Know that “Maggie” has a book to write under a contract with a deadline in November, and on top of that a grandson is expected to be born on Labor Day.

I kinda know how this industry works and how frantic it can get. Both Maggie and I have problems with anxiety. With me if not moderated it can lead to mania and depression, so I have to nip it in the bud, but with Maggie she gets crazy and frenzied to the point of insanity. Pretty much I’m aware that this is a crazy world, and perhaps I’m crazy enough already. That’s why I don’t take this so seriously, but then again I don’t want to ever have remorse, and I like crazy things.

Pretty much I don’t want to be boring, so a bit of conflict and drama is alright.

I wonder if I should smoke some evil weed to help me deal with not my anxiety, but the anxiety of others. Pretty much having to deal with the non-sense of people out of control is the question and perhaps that is why I guess at heart I’m truly a loner.

Already Vanessa has inquired about my photography. I feel I need to protect it, and at this point I don’t care about fame or fortune. I’m mighty happy because I have an uncomplicated life. Representation I think I would regret. I don’t want to please any audience, and I certainly don’t want to be a public figure any more than I am. When I need attention I certainly can get it because in fact I am a true drama queen who can incite incidents and people. I certainly know how to party and do crazy outrageous things, but is there a point to all that?

So I had to reshoot the “Digitals” of Maggie again. Pretty much she was upset and unhappy. No big deal, took about 6-7 minutes to clear the patio and reshoot. Is this something to be unhappy about? Anyways to me this is crazy.

I think John Goodman is cool. In an interview after the Roseanne scandal he was asked how he felt about not ever winning an Emmy Award and now that the show was canned the lost future possibility of getting an Emmy was profound for me. Basically he said, “I’ve been nominated 7 or 8 times, and if I have not gotten one by now, it will never happen anyway.”

I think of why I am a photographer, and who I am trying to please. Anyways photography is part of my identity, I need it to live and feel fulfilled, and pretty much I’m cool just keeping it pure and to myself. I do not want the burden of pleasing others, or having to compromise my ideals, or worse yet commercialize my work like a whore.

Anyways just trying to be me, but it is a pretty hard road. For Maggie does it make any sense to do something that makes you unhappy, especially if you don’t have to?

I have plenty of distractions: cars, guitars, amps, bikes, cameras, printing, fishing… Then there is my house to enjoy…

I have very ambivalent feelings about being a model.

Another struggle is that I tend to work alone, but “Maggie” is not that way. Many times she over thinks about things and makes everything complicated. Pretty much academic training spilling over. Pretty hard for me to work uninterrupted. I hate loosing my momentum.

Cal
 
Cal, I finally figured out where I'd seen a truck like yours before. It's the same model and color as the truck Clint Eastwood drove in "The Bridges Of Madison County"!
 
Cal, I finally figured out where I'd seen a truck like yours before. It's the same model and color as the truck Clint Eastwood drove in "The Bridges Of Madison County"!

MFM,

I thought of that too, and you are confirming my thinking.

1964-1966 Chevy C10’s are pretty much all the same. The differences are where they moved the C10 badge, and in 1966 they replaced the 230 Ci I-6 with a 250 Ci I-6 and also added backup lights. Oddly though my 1966 does not have backup lights. How odd, but also how cool.

Today I stayed local and went into Blue Mountain Preserve for a ride. I used the steel IBIS with a 30 inch single speed.

The Dickey Brook Trail and the Boundary Trail are the easiest hiking trails, and I did some exploring. Evidently there is the WMBA “Chain Stretcher” Race Course.

So my bike handling skills are improving. Pretty much a slow ride just trying to “clean” some rocky climbs. I didn’t do so badly. Anyways I am tired but not beat up. Used a lot of my upper body strength.

Cal
 
I kinda know how this industry works and how frantic it can get. Both Maggie and I have problems with anxiety. With me if not moderated it can lead to mania and depression, so I have to nip it in the bud, but with Maggie she gets crazy and frenzied to the point of insanity. Pretty much I’m aware that this is a crazy world, and perhaps I’m crazy enough already. That’s why I don’t take this so seriously, but then again I don’t want to ever have remorse, and I like crazy things.

Pretty much I don’t want to be boring, so a bit of conflict and drama is alright.

I wonder if I should smoke some evil weed to help me deal with not my anxiety, but the anxiety of others. Pretty much having to deal with the non-sense of people out of control is the question and perhaps that is why I guess at heart I’m truly a loner.


Cal
In a way funny how you put into writing but actually true. I somehow am a very balanced person but lately was worrying about some others' anxiety too much. And as an empath I pick up stuff. Another friend brands me as "the most chill dude in town" so if I had ties cut by a friend it's not so much my issue.
Good thing also I never needed any kind of (in all legal scales) substance to cope.

Some good music and shooting to keep along and a nice long visit home to get some warmth soon in the calendar. Been delving into my archives and nostalgia.
Have a too small apartment, but choosing some prints (8x12 to 12x16") to mount or frame. Have that shot from your Williamsburg bridge spot over Domino's and your former apartment. December 2015.
Another big thing that always since forever got me is time and its passage. That is a big drive on being a photographer.

Funny enough I inverted my trend of becoming adult and instead volunteered into some culture association closely tied to academia here, but without the academia part. I use to say that academia is too fixated and slow for the crazy fast paced world.
 
In a way funny how you put into writing but actually true. I somehow am a very balanced person but lately was worrying about some others' anxiety too much. And as an empath I pick up stuff. Another friend brands me as "the most chill dude in town" so if I had ties cut by a friend it's not so much my issue.
Good thing also I never needed any kind of (in all legal scales) substance to cope.

Some good music and shooting to keep along and a nice long visit home to get some warmth soon in the calendar. Been delving into my archives and nostalgia.
Have a too small apartment, but choosing some prints (8x12 to 12x16") to mount or frame. Have that shot from your Williamsburg bridge spot over Domino's and your former apartment. December 2015.
Another big thing that always since forever got me is time and its passage. That is a big drive on being a photographer.

Funny enough I inverted my trend of becoming adult and instead volunteered into some culture association closely tied to academia here, but without the academia part. I use to say that academia is too fixated and slow for the crazy fast paced world.

Jorde,

You are wise to live small. Pretty much lived in as 650 square foot luxury apartment for a decade. Of course this was insanely crowded. Devil Christian says I basically “went vertical” and kinda built a high rise in the bedroom to store clothes, bags and shoes of a fashion blogger as well as a floor standing printer (Jersey Barrier), a 27 inch EIZO, all my cameras, and mucho large prints.

This allowed me to live below my means, so know I enjoy a bit of abundance. The money has to come from somewhere.

That vantage point on the Williamsburg Bridge is all sealed off. They pretty much made it so you can’t jump from the bridge to kill yourself. That part of Williamsburg you would not recognize anymore because it is all redeveloped. Not so different than Hudson Yards except without the luxury mall.

So you have a piece of history there. Gone forever is the old original New York.

Pretty proud how I’m advancing on the bike. It is kinda crazy to ride a Trials bike with only one gear at Blue Mountan. When my front wheel got trapped in rocks I was able to balance and stay upright on the peddles, effectively doing a track stand, not moving forward or backwards, and this allowed me to make a move to unwrap the wheel. Skill is happening. Also I’m getting better at holding a clean line.

Cal
 
Today I worked half a day pulling Knotweed. The cool thing is that the Knotweed is so weakened that long roots come up with the stalk. Pretty much it is easier to pull, and the plants over the last 3-4 weeks from when I last weeded grew less. Evidently they have depleted their amount of stored energy and food.

I had to change tactics and because I had so many roots I decided to lay the piles on top of a tarp where the sun will dry them out and kill the roots..

I also started rescreening windows and got 6 done. Remember my Baby-Victorian has 40 windows. The new screening is more transparent than the old. More light enters the house and the view is not veiled. I love it.

Went to Home Cheapo to buy a new storm door for the kitchen. When the new wooden door gets installed, so will the new storm door. I went up a level in the Anderson line and got one that is more heavy duty with top and bottom door pulls. I features one large window to exploit the view of the back-backyard. Also since the new wooden door has a large window there is no horizontal part of the frame to interfere with the outside view.

I’m considering capabilities a White Industry rear hub from a built old school wheel I was reserving for Newsboy use on the Ti Basso. Phil was correct that pretty much the shortages are mucho bad at White Industries. I have a modern set of wheels that are UST for tubeless tires that will have to have tires taken off to do any conversion. I’m cool with that.

I have one 32 spoke Sun/Ringle 24 inch rim, and the hub I want to use has the same hole count. Know that my other rims are 36 spoke.

So I wonder when these shortages will end. My thinking is that these shortages and inflation that goes along with the supply/demand imbalance might be around for a while.

I’m also waiting for the Mitsubishi compressor for my Mini-Splits.

Cal
 
This current recession and supply line shortage may perhaps be the fault of the US Federal Reserve Bank (privately owned BTW). I have read that between 2008 and 2014 they printed three hundred years worth of money. During Covid they printed even more ! Governments and central banks simply can not continue to print fiat currency in these quantities without it having an effect on the overall economy. The history of many nations supports this theory.
 
Anyone know of a source for up to 20 used, working 35mm SLRs? This is for a class environment where we may be supplying cameras to students. No one is making (affordable) 35mm cameras anymore, so we're looking for fully-manual SLRs (no rangefinders or P&S) which will work without a battery. We don't need integrated circuits in battery-dependent cameras going bad on students making them more frustrated.
Thanks for any leads y'all may have.

Phil Forrest
 
This current recession and supply line shortage may perhaps be the fault of the US Federal Reserve Bank (privately owned BTW). I have read that between 2008 and 2014 they printed three hundred years worth of money. During Covid they printed even more ! Governments and central banks simply can not continue to print fiat currency in these quantities without it having an effect on the overall economy. The history of many nations supports this theory.

Austin,

Back before the housing crisis, “Maggie” and I lived in Greenpoint and before there was a housing crisis I knew we were on a unsustainable path. All I knew is that it would end badly, but somehow the U.S. and the world reinflated a collapsed economy. One bubble led to another…

Failed businesses stayed alive, others were “rescued” deemed too big to fail, and pretty much the reset that should of happened didn’t.

Back in 1976 I graduated High School, and I could not get even a minimum wage job, that’s how bad the economy was. I experience double digit inflation and double digit unemployment.

I have a signed copy of Alan Greenspan’s book “Irrational Exuberance” because I went to a book signing when he was promoting the book. The biggest lesson was how globalization led to and created “disinflation” even though wages remained stagnant for decades. Pretty much the age of disinflation was fueled by cheap imported goods and a form of consumerism fostered by places like Walmart and warehouse shopping like depo’s like BJ’s or Sam’s.

I believe the age of abundance and disinflation is over. China has clear ambitions, but I think they “Jumped the Shark” and made a huge policy error that will lead to a collapse. Pretty recently it has become evident that Globalization is kinda done, and remember Globalization, cheap foreign labor, and export economies of developing countries were responsible for the disinflation we had and enjoyed.

But know I’m not a typical American consumer, and only a little more than a year ago I experienced Walmart for the first time. Pretty much I am not a consumer of cheap goods mostly from China. I grew up poor, escaped poverty, and have a different set of values.

So China made clear their ambitions and is not really going to be a fair player, and they will experience a population ‘Cliff” because not only will their population collapse, but it will also age, and because of their one child per family the young people that do exist are mostly boys further effecting and deepening a population collapse.

In history the prosperity and growth we enjoyed was mostly due to the population explosion after World War 2. Pretty much a baby-boom created a consumer economy a a tremendous expansion. Conversely In the U.S., Europe, Japan, and now China we have an aging population which is a drag on the economy. Taken further is that no economy can easily grow without an increasing population. Here in the U.S. this need was filled by immigration.

So the fatal mistake in China is that the collapse will be rather sudden, and before it developed a domestic market and a middle class. Pretty much the idea that China will become the world’s largest economy might be a myth, or if it does exceed the economy of the U.S. in size it will collapse rather abruptly and like its population fall off a cliff. I say it will be a very short “Empire” for China, and pretty much the default will come back to the U.S. How do you increase or grow your population with a female shortage?

So with de-globalization underway there are costs to develop domestic infrastructure and a new learning curve because we gave away lots of technology and manufacturing. I’m not so sure we have the capabilities to send a man to the moon anymore that’s how badly we ran ourselves down. The U.S has no heavy boost rocket capabilities anymore, and to emphasize the point how do players like Elon Musk and Virgin Airlines fill the void. Anyways lots of back filling has to occur to fill in erosion.

I believe in regression to the mean. Pretty much this is just statistics, and the printing of mucho money is a fatal mistake that leads to an "age of shortages.” Back in 2007-2008 this printing of money just “Kicked the can down the road,” and eventually it will come to either a collapse that should of happened or a long-long time of just muddling sideways perhaps for decades, or a combination of the two above scenarios.

I think the FED will keep on jacking rates at 0.75% until something happens. The speculated 1.0% hike would spook the market, and as it is we live in scary times that will never return to “normal.” The housing shortage I don’t think will go away, and at worse affordability and prices kinda go just sideways, perhaps for a very long-long time. Again regression to the mean, but perhaps because real estate is a hedge against inflation there is potential to increase income disparity even further. The haves and have nots will become more polarized.

I think an unintended consequence is that the housing market has a large group of mortgages that were either financed at record low rates like we did, or refinanced to historically favorable rates. This kinda creates a dilemma where homes that locked in these historically low rates become a “Dead Pool” where owners of homes that have record low mortgage rates will favor keeping those homes kinda forever.

Meanwhile people who don’t own homes get left farther behind as inflation diminishes their standard of living… Home affordability is the deciding line of the haves and have nots…

BTW my expenses are about 2/3rds of what they were when I was working and living in Manhattan, and to compound this my standard of living and quality of life are much higher. I wonder how many people are doing what I did, and if that this is the real reason for a worker/labor shortage.

I also say that the slow speed of productivity is not being factored in. Say my kitchen remodel took twice the time to complete. Pretty much very simple math when you consider output. How can an economy be growing when it takes twice as long to do a task? Funny math in my book. Eyes wide open: this is the new normal; and welcome to the “age of shortages” and a prolonged period of inflation that will destroy our economy slowly over time.

In 2007-2008 we had a choice… Now we don’t have one… Should the economy (ours and the world) been allowed to collapse bach in 2007-2008? Perhaps a slow decline over time is the better choice that a financial A-Ma-god-DEN.

At this point it is “Oh-well…”

Cal
 
Anyone know of a source for up to 20 used, working 35mm SLRs? This is for a class environment where we may be supplying cameras to students. No one is making (affordable) 35mm cameras anymore, so we're looking for fully-manual SLRs (no rangefinders or P&S) which will work without a battery. We don't need integrated circuits in battery-dependent cameras going bad on students making them more frustrated.
Thanks for any leads y'all may have.

Phil Forrest

Phil,

I would accumulate Pentax K-1000’s. Fits the bill. Getting or acquiring 30 is a problem…

Cal
 
The history that printing “Fiat” currency is basically the purchasing power of the currency eventually destroyed: basically in other words inflation. What surprises me is how long the delay was ( 2007-2008, and then Pandemic “Helicopter-Money”) before inflation kicked in, but now we have hit the “tipping-point.”

One analyst coined the analogy describing when the entire world and where every country/Central Bank is basically depreciating their currency as in today, that it basically “ it is a race to the bottom.”

The end is pretty much in theory is the destruction of a currency is the finish line and along with that is the destruction of an economy. For a good example look at Germany after WWI when it was saddled with war reparations (debt) and how that led to Facism, extreme nationalism, the rise of Nazi Germany, and eventually WWII.

In theory this means that it is not so different than a downhill mountain bike race. The trajectory is clear: downward. Pretty much turning around makes no sense once you leave the gate and pretty much it is a one-way trail: again downward. Then the idea carries over that pretty much “it is a race to the bottom,” meaning the person who gets to the bottom first is the basically the winner because there is an advantage in being the front runner, and that being being able to pick a line and not having to fight any congestion.

Examine the strong dollar. How did the dollar’s high interest rates move the EURO to parity? Don’t forget commodities like food and oil are priced in dollars… How is Europe going to cope with the energy shortage. My bet is that this winter will be a tipping point.

So now my spin is that yes this is a race to the bottom that has only one trajectory: downward; but to avoid a crash the speed has to be slowed down to the extent that the “race” actually is a “Marathon” because it is a very long downward race indeed, played out in UBER slow motion. Too much speed will cause a crash.

Pretty much I know this by my bike riding in Blue Mountain Preserve.

So think about inflation in terms of supply and demand. Shortages support higher prices, and conversely oversupply (abundance) lowers prices. I stipulate the switch has been flipped. Most people don’t think forward or think long-term. I’m thinking long-long-long term. Another way to think about things is oversupply is deflationary. Basically we flipped the switch from deflationary to inflationary; deflation went on for decades; and if one believes in regression to the mean then we could have decades of high inflation to eventually balance things out.

Of course there is no new normal because everything we are experiencing is unprecideneed. When have we deglobalized? When have we had to rebuild economies again? Perhaps maybe was rebuilding Europe after WWII or Japan after WWII. Anyways you can see it took decades…

Also not only did it take decades, “the money had to come from somewhere.” Where do you think the money will come from? This downhill race is not a “Free-Ride.”

So what are the rich and affluent doing? Makes sense to me they are trying to buy hard assets so they can stay wealthy in terms of purchasing power and standard of living. Pretty much they don’t buy cheap stuff from China: they buy luxury goods to enjoy; they buy durable goods today knowing that in the future because of inflation it will be more costly in the future; and basically taking advantage of sales at today’s low prices by loading up the truck.

Phil has it right; it is a tale of two economies; the haves and the have nots.

Cal
 
Anyone know of a source for up to 20 used, working 35mm SLRs? This is for a class environment where we may be supplying cameras to students. No one is making (affordable) 35mm cameras anymore, so we're looking for fully-manual SLRs (no rangefinders or P&S) which will work without a battery. We don't need integrated circuits in battery-dependent cameras going bad on students making them more frustrated.
Thanks for any leads y'all may have.

Phil Forrest

Phil - I can't suggest a source, but there are SLR cameras which are not desirable, but which work well. Cosina, Chinon and Ricoh all made basic cameras, and then there are L series Prakticas.
John
 
Drove to the diagonal opposite side of Dutchess County from the City of Beacon. If Beacon is the bottom left side Millerton is the upper right side of Dutchess County. Route 44 is a long country road with a speed limit that varies between 45-55 MPH. Kinda funny how in this more rural area school zones have a 35 MPH speed limit. So once you get off the Taconic Parkway Route 44 is a pretty long drive that gets redirected left and right a few times along the ways.

Millerton is not far from the Connecticut border. Unlike Peekskill, a sea of Toyotas and Hondas that represent working class, Millerton is more upscale and so are the cars. Not a bad place to look for antiques. Prices are worth the trip and so is the selection.

Also of interest are the multiple rails to trails in Dutchess County. I bought “Maggie” a bike for Christmas, a cruiser, but pretty much this heavy bike and Maggie’s lack of skill in riding and lack of conditioning requires near level ground or old railroad grades. Pretty much she rides just the low gear.

Maggie did a little shopping, and for me the local bookstore is where I loaded up the truck. Maggie has this habit of throwing things away that I wish she didn’t. This old cooking spoon that I had for decades. I know it was nothing special, but it bothers me that I have to buy something to replace it. Plastic handle, metal extension, then a large spoon with the tip cut into a plane straight across that made it great for scooping say carmelized onions out of a frying pan.

So Maggie likes wooden spoons, but the wooden spoons at craft fairs and home good stores are all generic looking to me. No style, not artful, and all kinda plain Jane.

So I buy a book on making wooden spoons knowing I can add some crazy and perhaps create some wooden spoons that are not so boring, plain, and generic. Basically I want to create “Monster Spoons” that have some personality. Also know I have mucho reclaimed lumber from my 110 year old house to recycle. All this because Maggie threw out my most useful cooking utensil and because pretty much no one makes a spoon I like.

I bought another book on how to bring the outdoors into the interior. Pretty much a design and decorating book for ideas. I also bought this book thinking that it might steer Maggie away from buying all this high end luxury stuff for our house. Too much gets tacky. I do not want to live in a display of wealth.

I bought a “Native Plant Primer” that is tailored to the Northeast. Pretty much my lazy slacker approach to gardening that is less groomed and more feral. BTW Maggie like organized English Gardens. Me I like chaos and a bit of wilderness.

Then I went to the business section and bought Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order.” I’m very familiar with this book because Ray, the manager of the Hedgefund BlackRock, the world’s largest hedge fund, sent me advanced chapters to read that were not final drafts.

I received a chapter at a time via my work e-mail. Pretty much I figure I got profiled and directed by all the data mining performed on my work computer. Perhaps they figured out I was a smart guy who did extensive research in the financial area. Maybe they knew enough about me to profile me. Anyways I find all the data mining performed today to be scary.

So how did a billionaire Hedge Fund Manager like Ray Dalio get my e-mail? I was just minding my own business…

Anyways Ray is a very smart man, and I admire him, but I strongly disagree with him about China becoming the next empire. Like I said when and if China ever becomes the largest economy in the world, it’s empire will collapse and only last a brief time if it ever happens. Also know Ray lost a lot of money on his China bets when Covid happened.

The copyright date was 2021, but I’ve read many of the chapters in an advanced form in 2020.

Today I kinda had a performance. I had to make two calls. One was to British Columbia to get a link for the 4x8 cedar shed shipping. The link they sent did not work. Shipping started in Canada on July 22d, and I was told generally it takes about 2 weeks, but the shipping now suggests it will be at some depot near me on as early as August 1st. Pretty much 7-8 hundred pounds gets off loaded by me and the Fed Ex driver in about 15 minutes into my driveway.

Then the real performance was like “Good Cop: Bad Cop” where I’m the good cop. I called the place where we ordered the custom cabinets because we are missing the base material to install the crown moldings that are for the tops of our cabinets. Also a panel needs to be added because they painted the wrong side of one cabinet, then there are two haft inch spaces required because of another mistake they made in the refrigerator width. Most small fridges are 30 inch, but ours is 31 inches, so the cabinet over the fridge can’t be installed because of the missing spacers.

Six weeks have expired. “Maggie” had called and pretty much no timeline, a bunch of excuses, some finger pointing, and then “crickets” for six weeks. So I call. Even though I am a skinny bitch I have a voice that is commanding, a stage voice, one great for broadcasting, and pretty much I learn that the custom items have been made and shipped to the dealer and they should have them next week.

Of course this is just the opposite response that Maggie received just 6 weeks ago. Maggie says I have this manner of sweet talking to people to get what I want. I know I’m a great salesman, so that is true. I also know people in a personal manner, I know about them, and according to Maggie, “I chit-chat with them.” So Maggie kinda says that I’m a smooth talker, and takes ownership that she is a crazy bitch that is adversarial all the time because she worked with lawyers and got all caught up in that culture of arguing all the time and for her it is easy to come across in a hostile bitch manner.

So the episode of Good-Cop: Bad-Cop kinda fell into place, but know that I can be a nasty bitch also. My male friends say I’m worse than a woman when I get hysterical. LOL.

Anyways I’m glad things turned out alright, no need to get hysterical and nasty.

Cal
 
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